Our market analysts recently met up to discuss, analyze, and contextualize the biggest trends across the games, esports, and mobile markets. Last week, we published an article on the games trends to watch out for next year. Now, we’re turning our gaze toward the mobile trends to look forward to in 2020.
2020: Still Not the Year of 5G
5G will certainly begin laying down its foundation for the future next year; yet, 2020 will not be the year of 5G. Undeniably, 5G is one of the most exciting developments in mobile technology. When it hits the mainstream, it will give way to a whole new era of tech-driven solutions, with cloud gaming chief among them.
5G will eventually become the new standard for mobile connectivity in mature and growth markets alike, offering users far faster speeds and more reliable connections than ever before.
The 5G-powered mobile market is certainly incoming, but it will not be in full swing by 2020. Here’s the current outlook of the ecosystem:
- Many markets — including the U.S., South Korea, and China — have already laid down infrastructure for 5G (with commercial networks), but coverage is mostly limited to a select few cities or even specific neighborhoods;
- Other countries are following suit, with Japan, Canada, France, and India all on track for 2020 5G launches;
- Most countries, however, are aiming for a full national rollout by 2025.
On the hardware front, many companies have released 5G devices (Samsung, Huawei, and Oppo) or are rumored to launch them (Apple). But hardware is just one piece of the 5G puzzle.
Right now, 5G technology faces a bigger barrier: its millimeter-wave radio signals, which have a short range, are more easily blocked by obstacles such as walls, meaning it is challenging for engineers to construct an uninterrupted service.
5G must also provide a compelling use case. This means that other technologies — such as cloud/edge computing — must develop alongside 5G to find the tech’s killer app. Cloud gaming, which could give way to seamless AAA gaming on the go, could be the catalyst that attracts many consumers to the 5G ecosystem.
We predict that 5G will take another three or four years to hit the mainstream. While 2020 will lay the groundwork for the years to come, 5G will not have its time until 2022 at the very earliest.
2. Peripherals and Input Devices Become Prominent on Mobile
Peripherals and input devices are already a crucial feature of the games market. Controllers, keyboards, mice, and headsets are virtually synonymous with the business at this point.
And this is only due to accelerate: As cloud gaming and crossplay usher in a platform-agnostic future, high-quality game experiences will be defined more by input than anything else.
On mobile, there is yet another catalyst: As more complex and competitive titles continue to hit the platform, consumers’ need for more precise input (controller peripherals) and communication (headsets) may spike revenues from mobile peripherals.
In the coming years, mobile peripherals will be comparable to peripherals for consoles, albeit smaller in size or collapsible for portability, like the Nintendo Switch’s Joycon controllers.
We will also continue to see peripherals that are compatible with several platforms, again owing to the platform-agnostic future created by cloud gaming and crossplay.
This trend has already kickstarted:
- Apple already added PS4 and Xbox controller compatibility to its devices;
- Microsoft is currently experimenting with Switch-like prototype Xbox controllers for phones and tablets; and
- Razer launched Junglecat controller to support cloud gaming on mobile.
3. A New Norm: Launching Lite Apps Alongside Main Apps
Ever-advancing mobile chips are making smartphones faster, more powerful, and more capable — almost reaching the heights of some fully-fledged gaming devices.
At the same time, advancements in lower- and mid-tier chips are making (cheaper) smartphones more common in growth markets such as India.
Emerging markets such as these are key focus areas for smartphone manufacturers and app developers, as revenues growth rates are beginning to slow down in more mature markets.
As mobile games continue to grow in scope and complexity, they are becoming more demanding on smartphones in terms of processing power and storage space.
Different consumers have different smartphones with different specs, so it is beneficial for mobile game developers to provide experiences for all sides of the device-spec spectrum.
One way for developers to do this is to release a ‘’Lite’’ version of their main apps, informed by smartphone usage data. Some standard game apps already resemble console and PC games, but Lite apps take that same experience, strip it down somewhat, and make it accessible to billions of smartphone users across the world.
Examples include PUBG MOBILE LITE, Uber Lite, and Booking.com Lite. Meanwhile, social-and-communication apps like Facebook and Skype have operated Lite apps for years.
While it seems that results so far have been mixed, paying mobile users in these countries are on the rise, meaning capitalizing on these markets — and keeping an eye on their most used devices — is increasingly vital for the future growth of many companies.
In the end, Lite apps mean developers do not have to limit their visions while also reaching a huge number of smartphone users. We expect that simultaneous launches of Lite and main game apps will become the new standard going forward.
4. Strong iPhone 11 Sales in China Will Keep iOS Revenues Bigger than Android’s in the Market
The global mobile games market will grow to $76.1 billion in 2020. Mobile will account for 47.4% of the total games market, meaning it remains the biggest gaming segment. Likewise, China will again be the world’s largest mobile games market in 2020, boasting revenues of $24.6 billion.
In the Chinese market, domestic smartphone manufacturers like Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi have become increasingly popular in recent years. Nevertheless, Apple’s low-price iPhone 11 strategy has already drawn many Chinese consumers (back) to Apple’s ecosystem.
Early stats for China look promising: In the first 10 minutes of Single’s Day 2019, Apple sold seven times more on Tmall (Alibaba’s B2C e-commerce platform) than it did throughout the entire day last year. What’s more, the iPhone 11 Pro alone sold over 10,000 units within the first five minutes on JD.com.
iPhone users are known for their high spending power, leading us to predict that iOS will remain the leading mobile platform in terms of mobile game revenues in China. In 2020, iOS will generate 53.0% of mobile game revenues in China ($13.0 billion), compared to Android’s 47.0% ($11.6 billion).
Newzoo’s Global Mobile Market Report: A Panoramic Overview of the Mobile (Gaming) Market
Our Global Mobile Market Report boasts contextualized insights on the mobile games market — globally and in 12 key focus markets, the world’s 3.2 billion smartphone users (and the devices they actively use), smartphone penetration, and more.
In our latest edition, we decided to draw even further from our unparalleled games expertise, focusing on mobile gaming more than in previous years. To that end, the report also includes an in-depth look at app store game revenues and a game genre analysis. Contact questions@newzoo.com to learn more.
